The Big Cashew Shake-Up: What to Expect in 2026
If you’ve noticed that your favorite snack is getting more expensive—or if you’re in the business of buying raw cashew nuts (RCN)—you’re probably wondering what’s coming next.
The world of cashews is changing fast. For years, Africa grew the nuts and Asia processed them. But in 2026, that "old way" is being flipped upside down. Here is everything you need to know about the 2026 cashew forecast in plain English.
1. More Nuts, But Harder to Get
The good news? More cashews are being grown than ever before. Global production is expected to jump by about 3% to 5% in 2026.
- Tanzania is having a great year, with a huge 17% boost in their harvest thanks to better weather.
- Cambodia is still a giant, pumping out nearly 1 million tons of nuts.
But the catch is: Even though there are more nuts, they might be harder for international buyers to grab. Countries like Ivory Coast and Burkina Faso are now telling their farmers: "Don't ship the raw nuts away. Keep them here so we can start our own factories."
2. The Quality Battle: KOR Explained
In the cashew world, we talk about KOR (Kernel Out-turn Ratio). This is just a fancy way of saying: "How much actual nut meat do you get out of a 1kg bag of shells?"
For 2026, the quality is looking split:
- Cambodia: Known for huge nuts but a slightly lower meat-to-shell ratio.
- West Africa (Ghana/Benin): These nuts are smaller, but the quality (KOR) is hitting record highs—often above 50 lbs.
3. Why Prices Are Staying High
You might think more nuts means lower prices, but 2026 is looking "bullish" (prices going up). Why?
- Shipping is getting pricey: It costs more to move nuts across the ocean.
- New Rules: The US and Europe have new "green" laws for 2026. If you can’t prove your cashews didn’t cause deforestation, you can’t sell them. This "paperwork tax" is adding to the cost.
- Local Pride: Since Africa is processing more of its own nuts, there is a "bidding war" between African factories and Asian factories for the raw material.
4. What This Means for You
If you are a buyer or a fan of cashews, here is the bottom line for 2026:
- Expect Stable Supply: There won't be a shortage, but the flow of nuts will be different.
- Watch Tanzania: They will be the swing producer this year. If their harvest stays strong, it could keep prices from skyrocketing.
- Traceability is King: In 2026, a cheap nut might be a "risky nut." Buyers are now paying extra for cashews they can track back to a specific farm.
Looking ahead to 2026?
At The King Group, we help buyers source traceable, compliant raw cashew nuts and many more agro-commodities directly from their origin.
📩 Reach out to cmo@thekinggroup.in discuss supply strategy, origin options, and long-term partnerships.